Greece Ends 2025 With Stronger Than Expected Fiscal Surplus
Greece closed 2025 with a primary surplus of 4.5% of GDP, marking a significantly stronger outcome than the revised target of 3.7%. Estimates place the surplus near €11.5 billion, mirroring the performance of 2024 when it stood at 4.8% of GDP.
Robust economic expansion combined with intensified measures against tax evasion, including broader use of electronic transactions, helped reinforce the fiscal position. These developments align with earlier projections from the Parliamentary Budget Office, which had anticipated a surplus close to 4% of GDP for 2025.
Forecasts indicate that the primary surplus will ease to 2.8% of GDP in 2026, though the country still enters the new year with substantial fiscal momentum.
Prospects for New Rating Upgrades in 2026
Expectations for 2026 center on Greece’s upcoming evaluations by international credit rating agencies, which could pave the way for further upgrades. Fiscal results, economic growth and the trajectory of public debt reduction will form the core criteria influencing these assessments.
Growth Outlook Supported by Rising Investment
Economic growth is projected at 2.2% for 2025, slightly above the 2.1% recorded in 2024. Projections for 2026 show acceleration to 2.4%, mainly driven by a surge in investments.
Investments are expected to jump by 10.2% in 2026, after increases of 5.7% in 2025 and 4.5% in 2024. Faster absorption of Recovery Fund resources and the rollout of associated projects form the backbone of this investment lift.
Public Debt Continues Its Downward Course
Public debt declined to 145.9% of GDP in 2025, down from 154.2% in 2024. Projections suggest the downward trend will persist into 2026, with debt estimated to drop to around 138% of GDP.
A major milestone is anticipated for 2029, when public debt is expected to fall below 120% of GDP for the first time in many years, reaching approximately 119%.
